5 cards are chosen from a standard deck. What is the probability that we get all four aces, plus the king of spades?

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We have $binom525$ ways of doing this. This will be our denominator.



We want to select all 4 aces, there are there are exactly $binom44$ ways of doing this.



Now we have selected 4 cards, and we need to select one more. That one card has to be the king of spades. Out of the 48 remaining cards, only one of them is our wanted one. This can be chosen in $binom481$ ways.



So is the answer:



$$dfracbinom44binom481binom525=dfrac154145?$$



Is this correct?



If we look at it another way:



Then then our probability for the aces and specific king are $(4/52)times (3/51) times (2/50) times (1/49) times (1/48)$ which is a completely different here.



Which is the correct approach?










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  • numerator should be 1 if you want a specific combination
    – Nong
    2 hours ago










  • So the second one is correct?
    – K Split X
    2 hours ago










  • No, it seems like you're permuting those four aces.
    – Nong
    2 hours ago














up vote
2
down vote

favorite












We have $binom525$ ways of doing this. This will be our denominator.



We want to select all 4 aces, there are there are exactly $binom44$ ways of doing this.



Now we have selected 4 cards, and we need to select one more. That one card has to be the king of spades. Out of the 48 remaining cards, only one of them is our wanted one. This can be chosen in $binom481$ ways.



So is the answer:



$$dfracbinom44binom481binom525=dfrac154145?$$



Is this correct?



If we look at it another way:



Then then our probability for the aces and specific king are $(4/52)times (3/51) times (2/50) times (1/49) times (1/48)$ which is a completely different here.



Which is the correct approach?










share|cite|improve this question





















  • numerator should be 1 if you want a specific combination
    – Nong
    2 hours ago










  • So the second one is correct?
    – K Split X
    2 hours ago










  • No, it seems like you're permuting those four aces.
    – Nong
    2 hours ago












up vote
2
down vote

favorite









up vote
2
down vote

favorite











We have $binom525$ ways of doing this. This will be our denominator.



We want to select all 4 aces, there are there are exactly $binom44$ ways of doing this.



Now we have selected 4 cards, and we need to select one more. That one card has to be the king of spades. Out of the 48 remaining cards, only one of them is our wanted one. This can be chosen in $binom481$ ways.



So is the answer:



$$dfracbinom44binom481binom525=dfrac154145?$$



Is this correct?



If we look at it another way:



Then then our probability for the aces and specific king are $(4/52)times (3/51) times (2/50) times (1/49) times (1/48)$ which is a completely different here.



Which is the correct approach?










share|cite|improve this question













We have $binom525$ ways of doing this. This will be our denominator.



We want to select all 4 aces, there are there are exactly $binom44$ ways of doing this.



Now we have selected 4 cards, and we need to select one more. That one card has to be the king of spades. Out of the 48 remaining cards, only one of them is our wanted one. This can be chosen in $binom481$ ways.



So is the answer:



$$dfracbinom44binom481binom525=dfrac154145?$$



Is this correct?



If we look at it another way:



Then then our probability for the aces and specific king are $(4/52)times (3/51) times (2/50) times (1/49) times (1/48)$ which is a completely different here.



Which is the correct approach?







probability statistics discrete-mathematics






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asked 2 hours ago









K Split X

3,862827




3,862827











  • numerator should be 1 if you want a specific combination
    – Nong
    2 hours ago










  • So the second one is correct?
    – K Split X
    2 hours ago










  • No, it seems like you're permuting those four aces.
    – Nong
    2 hours ago
















  • numerator should be 1 if you want a specific combination
    – Nong
    2 hours ago










  • So the second one is correct?
    – K Split X
    2 hours ago










  • No, it seems like you're permuting those four aces.
    – Nong
    2 hours ago















numerator should be 1 if you want a specific combination
– Nong
2 hours ago




numerator should be 1 if you want a specific combination
– Nong
2 hours ago












So the second one is correct?
– K Split X
2 hours ago




So the second one is correct?
– K Split X
2 hours ago












No, it seems like you're permuting those four aces.
– Nong
2 hours ago




No, it seems like you're permuting those four aces.
– Nong
2 hours ago










2 Answers
2






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4
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Your first computation gets the chance you get four aces and any other card. The $48 choose 1$ factor is selecting the other card. If you want specifically the king of spades it should be $1$, so the chance is $48$ times less. Your second computation gets the chance you draw the four aces first in some order, then draw the king of spades. You should multiply by $5$ for the number of positions the king can be in. Neither is correct for the question in the title.






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    up vote
    1
    down vote













    Assuming you just want those 5 cards in any order:



    Since you have specified all 5 specific cards that you want, you don't need to consider the aces separately from the king. The probability of selecting these 5 cards is then



    (Probability choosing any one of the 5) $times$ (Probability of choosing one of the remaining 4) $times$ ..., i.e. $$frac552 times frac451 times frac350 times frac249 times frac148 = frac154145 times frac148,$$ just to confirm what Ross Millikan said.



    If, instead, you want the 4 aces before the king, we have $$frac452 times frac351 times frac250 times frac149 times frac148.$$






    share|cite|improve this answer










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      2 Answers
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      active

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      2 Answers
      2






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      up vote
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      down vote













      Your first computation gets the chance you get four aces and any other card. The $48 choose 1$ factor is selecting the other card. If you want specifically the king of spades it should be $1$, so the chance is $48$ times less. Your second computation gets the chance you draw the four aces first in some order, then draw the king of spades. You should multiply by $5$ for the number of positions the king can be in. Neither is correct for the question in the title.






      share|cite|improve this answer
























        up vote
        4
        down vote













        Your first computation gets the chance you get four aces and any other card. The $48 choose 1$ factor is selecting the other card. If you want specifically the king of spades it should be $1$, so the chance is $48$ times less. Your second computation gets the chance you draw the four aces first in some order, then draw the king of spades. You should multiply by $5$ for the number of positions the king can be in. Neither is correct for the question in the title.






        share|cite|improve this answer






















          up vote
          4
          down vote










          up vote
          4
          down vote









          Your first computation gets the chance you get four aces and any other card. The $48 choose 1$ factor is selecting the other card. If you want specifically the king of spades it should be $1$, so the chance is $48$ times less. Your second computation gets the chance you draw the four aces first in some order, then draw the king of spades. You should multiply by $5$ for the number of positions the king can be in. Neither is correct for the question in the title.






          share|cite|improve this answer












          Your first computation gets the chance you get four aces and any other card. The $48 choose 1$ factor is selecting the other card. If you want specifically the king of spades it should be $1$, so the chance is $48$ times less. Your second computation gets the chance you draw the four aces first in some order, then draw the king of spades. You should multiply by $5$ for the number of positions the king can be in. Neither is correct for the question in the title.







          share|cite|improve this answer












          share|cite|improve this answer



          share|cite|improve this answer










          answered 2 hours ago









          Ross Millikan

          279k23189355




          279k23189355




















              up vote
              1
              down vote













              Assuming you just want those 5 cards in any order:



              Since you have specified all 5 specific cards that you want, you don't need to consider the aces separately from the king. The probability of selecting these 5 cards is then



              (Probability choosing any one of the 5) $times$ (Probability of choosing one of the remaining 4) $times$ ..., i.e. $$frac552 times frac451 times frac350 times frac249 times frac148 = frac154145 times frac148,$$ just to confirm what Ross Millikan said.



              If, instead, you want the 4 aces before the king, we have $$frac452 times frac351 times frac250 times frac149 times frac148.$$






              share|cite|improve this answer










              New contributor




              combinatoricky is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
              Check out our Code of Conduct.





















                up vote
                1
                down vote













                Assuming you just want those 5 cards in any order:



                Since you have specified all 5 specific cards that you want, you don't need to consider the aces separately from the king. The probability of selecting these 5 cards is then



                (Probability choosing any one of the 5) $times$ (Probability of choosing one of the remaining 4) $times$ ..., i.e. $$frac552 times frac451 times frac350 times frac249 times frac148 = frac154145 times frac148,$$ just to confirm what Ross Millikan said.



                If, instead, you want the 4 aces before the king, we have $$frac452 times frac351 times frac250 times frac149 times frac148.$$






                share|cite|improve this answer










                New contributor




                combinatoricky is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
                Check out our Code of Conduct.



















                  up vote
                  1
                  down vote










                  up vote
                  1
                  down vote









                  Assuming you just want those 5 cards in any order:



                  Since you have specified all 5 specific cards that you want, you don't need to consider the aces separately from the king. The probability of selecting these 5 cards is then



                  (Probability choosing any one of the 5) $times$ (Probability of choosing one of the remaining 4) $times$ ..., i.e. $$frac552 times frac451 times frac350 times frac249 times frac148 = frac154145 times frac148,$$ just to confirm what Ross Millikan said.



                  If, instead, you want the 4 aces before the king, we have $$frac452 times frac351 times frac250 times frac149 times frac148.$$






                  share|cite|improve this answer










                  New contributor




                  combinatoricky is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
                  Check out our Code of Conduct.









                  Assuming you just want those 5 cards in any order:



                  Since you have specified all 5 specific cards that you want, you don't need to consider the aces separately from the king. The probability of selecting these 5 cards is then



                  (Probability choosing any one of the 5) $times$ (Probability of choosing one of the remaining 4) $times$ ..., i.e. $$frac552 times frac451 times frac350 times frac249 times frac148 = frac154145 times frac148,$$ just to confirm what Ross Millikan said.



                  If, instead, you want the 4 aces before the king, we have $$frac452 times frac351 times frac250 times frac149 times frac148.$$







                  share|cite|improve this answer










                  New contributor




                  combinatoricky is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
                  Check out our Code of Conduct.









                  share|cite|improve this answer



                  share|cite|improve this answer








                  edited 2 hours ago





















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                  answered 2 hours ago









                  combinatoricky

                  614




                  614




                  New contributor




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                  New contributor





                  combinatoricky is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
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                  combinatoricky is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
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