Probability that in one rolling of 5 dice we obtain two '6' and one '5'?
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First I made a mistake of not taking into account that this event is dependent.
So to get two '$6$' the probability would be:
$$ P_5(2) = frac5!2!(5-2)! cdot left(frac16right)^2cdotleft(frac56right)^3 $$
Where
- $p = dfrac16$
- $q = dfrac56$
$N= 5$ (the number of elements of the system)
Then there are $3$ dice left on the table and we want to know the probability that one of them is a '$5$'. We rule out the two dice with the '$6$' face on. So the number of element in the system is now $3$. So the probability would be:
$$ P_3(1) = frac3!1!(3-1)! cdot left(frac16right)^1cdotleft(frac56right)^2 $$
But then the professor told me that $p=dfrac15$ and not $p=dfrac16$ That's what I don't get.
Of course at the end we multiply those two probabilities to get the final probability that we want.
probability dice
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up vote
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down vote
favorite
First I made a mistake of not taking into account that this event is dependent.
So to get two '$6$' the probability would be:
$$ P_5(2) = frac5!2!(5-2)! cdot left(frac16right)^2cdotleft(frac56right)^3 $$
Where
- $p = dfrac16$
- $q = dfrac56$
$N= 5$ (the number of elements of the system)
Then there are $3$ dice left on the table and we want to know the probability that one of them is a '$5$'. We rule out the two dice with the '$6$' face on. So the number of element in the system is now $3$. So the probability would be:
$$ P_3(1) = frac3!1!(3-1)! cdot left(frac16right)^1cdotleft(frac56right)^2 $$
But then the professor told me that $p=dfrac15$ and not $p=dfrac16$ That's what I don't get.
Of course at the end we multiply those two probabilities to get the final probability that we want.
probability dice
New contributor
Nuz is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
2
The probability is $1/5$ because you CAN"T get another $6.$ Then, you would have more than two $6$s.
– StatGuy
3 hours ago
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up vote
4
down vote
favorite
up vote
4
down vote
favorite
First I made a mistake of not taking into account that this event is dependent.
So to get two '$6$' the probability would be:
$$ P_5(2) = frac5!2!(5-2)! cdot left(frac16right)^2cdotleft(frac56right)^3 $$
Where
- $p = dfrac16$
- $q = dfrac56$
$N= 5$ (the number of elements of the system)
Then there are $3$ dice left on the table and we want to know the probability that one of them is a '$5$'. We rule out the two dice with the '$6$' face on. So the number of element in the system is now $3$. So the probability would be:
$$ P_3(1) = frac3!1!(3-1)! cdot left(frac16right)^1cdotleft(frac56right)^2 $$
But then the professor told me that $p=dfrac15$ and not $p=dfrac16$ That's what I don't get.
Of course at the end we multiply those two probabilities to get the final probability that we want.
probability dice
New contributor
Nuz is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
First I made a mistake of not taking into account that this event is dependent.
So to get two '$6$' the probability would be:
$$ P_5(2) = frac5!2!(5-2)! cdot left(frac16right)^2cdotleft(frac56right)^3 $$
Where
- $p = dfrac16$
- $q = dfrac56$
$N= 5$ (the number of elements of the system)
Then there are $3$ dice left on the table and we want to know the probability that one of them is a '$5$'. We rule out the two dice with the '$6$' face on. So the number of element in the system is now $3$. So the probability would be:
$$ P_3(1) = frac3!1!(3-1)! cdot left(frac16right)^1cdotleft(frac56right)^2 $$
But then the professor told me that $p=dfrac15$ and not $p=dfrac16$ That's what I don't get.
Of course at the end we multiply those two probabilities to get the final probability that we want.
probability dice
probability dice
New contributor
Nuz is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
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Nuz is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
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edited 39 mins ago
Tianlalu
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asked 3 hours ago


Nuz
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2
The probability is $1/5$ because you CAN"T get another $6.$ Then, you would have more than two $6$s.
– StatGuy
3 hours ago
add a comment |Â
2
The probability is $1/5$ because you CAN"T get another $6.$ Then, you would have more than two $6$s.
– StatGuy
3 hours ago
2
2
The probability is $1/5$ because you CAN"T get another $6.$ Then, you would have more than two $6$s.
– StatGuy
3 hours ago
The probability is $1/5$ because you CAN"T get another $6.$ Then, you would have more than two $6$s.
– StatGuy
3 hours ago
add a comment |Â
2 Answers
2
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up vote
3
down vote
I am a beginner so see if this makes sense to you. If not let me know. Here are two ways you can solve this.
Method 1
You can solve this using the joint pmf for a multinomial distribution.
$$P(X_6 = 2, X_5 = 1, X_other = 2) = frac5!2!1!2! left( frac16 right)^2 left( frac16 right) left( frac46 right)^2 approx .062$$
Method 2
Alternatively you can solve this using the multiplication rule. Here you get the $1/5$ that your professor talked about because when you condition you are on a reduced sample space.
Let $E$ be the event you get two sixes.
Let $F$ be the event you get one five.
Let $G$ be the event you get two of the others.
$$P(EFG) = P(E)P(F mid E)P(G mid EF) $$
$$P(E) = 5 choose 2left( frac16 right)^2 left( frac56 right)^3 $$
$$P(F mid E) = 3 choose 1left( frac15 right) left( frac45 right)^2$$
$$P(G mid EF) = 2 choose 2left( frac44 right)^2 left( frac44 right)^0 = 1$$
$$P(EFG) approx .062$$
The first method looks like an easy way, can I get the general equation? But still, the $1/5$ doesn't compute to me. How can we rule out a face when it can still happen? To me if we put $p=1/5$ it's would be like considering the 3 other dice have five faces.
– Nuz
3 hours ago
In regards to method 1 just look up the Multinomial distribution on wiki and check out the pmf. In regards to the $1/5$, personally I don't think about it as a dice with five faces. Personally the way I think about it is you roll the other $3$ dice and if you get any $6$'s you just roll again. So for example, what's the probability you roll a $1$ given that you don't roll a $2,3,4,5,6$? The probability is $1$. Does that mean you have a one faced die? Maybe the way to think of it is if you get something that is not a $1$ you just re roll until you finally do. You are on a reduced sample space.
– HJ_beginner
3 hours ago
Is there another approach, to calculate the fact that one out of the 3 dice must be a '5' and the 2 others can't be '6's or '5's? Or maybe another analogy or something?
– Nuz
1 hour ago
Hmmm not sure I understand your question. You can calculate $P(EFG)$ by conditioning on any event first. $P(EFG) = P(G)P(F mid G)P(E mid FG)$. There's many many valid approaches. Part of the reason why I find probability challenging/interesting.
– HJ_beginner
1 hour ago
add a comment |Â
up vote
2
down vote
But then the professor told me that $p=1/5$ and not $p=1/6$ That's what I don't get.
You have correctly evaluated the probability for the event that two from the five dice show 6.
$$mathsf P(N_6=2)=binom 52 dfrac1^25^36^5$$
Now, of the three dice which don't show 6, each may show faces $1,2,3,4,5$ with equal probability. Â Thus the conditional probability for a die showing 5, when given that it does not show 6, is $1/5$. Â So the conditional probability for obtaining one 5 when given that two 6 have been obtained among the five dice is:
$$mathsf P(N_5=1mid N_6=2)=binom 31dfrac1^14^25^3$$
Of course at the end we multiply those two probabilities to get the final probability that we want.
And the $5^3$ factors will cancel, so:
$$mathsf P(N_6=2,N_5=1)=binom52binom31dfrac1^21^14^26^5$$
PS: This is called a multinomial distribution.
add a comment |Â
2 Answers
2
active
oldest
votes
2 Answers
2
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
up vote
3
down vote
I am a beginner so see if this makes sense to you. If not let me know. Here are two ways you can solve this.
Method 1
You can solve this using the joint pmf for a multinomial distribution.
$$P(X_6 = 2, X_5 = 1, X_other = 2) = frac5!2!1!2! left( frac16 right)^2 left( frac16 right) left( frac46 right)^2 approx .062$$
Method 2
Alternatively you can solve this using the multiplication rule. Here you get the $1/5$ that your professor talked about because when you condition you are on a reduced sample space.
Let $E$ be the event you get two sixes.
Let $F$ be the event you get one five.
Let $G$ be the event you get two of the others.
$$P(EFG) = P(E)P(F mid E)P(G mid EF) $$
$$P(E) = 5 choose 2left( frac16 right)^2 left( frac56 right)^3 $$
$$P(F mid E) = 3 choose 1left( frac15 right) left( frac45 right)^2$$
$$P(G mid EF) = 2 choose 2left( frac44 right)^2 left( frac44 right)^0 = 1$$
$$P(EFG) approx .062$$
The first method looks like an easy way, can I get the general equation? But still, the $1/5$ doesn't compute to me. How can we rule out a face when it can still happen? To me if we put $p=1/5$ it's would be like considering the 3 other dice have five faces.
– Nuz
3 hours ago
In regards to method 1 just look up the Multinomial distribution on wiki and check out the pmf. In regards to the $1/5$, personally I don't think about it as a dice with five faces. Personally the way I think about it is you roll the other $3$ dice and if you get any $6$'s you just roll again. So for example, what's the probability you roll a $1$ given that you don't roll a $2,3,4,5,6$? The probability is $1$. Does that mean you have a one faced die? Maybe the way to think of it is if you get something that is not a $1$ you just re roll until you finally do. You are on a reduced sample space.
– HJ_beginner
3 hours ago
Is there another approach, to calculate the fact that one out of the 3 dice must be a '5' and the 2 others can't be '6's or '5's? Or maybe another analogy or something?
– Nuz
1 hour ago
Hmmm not sure I understand your question. You can calculate $P(EFG)$ by conditioning on any event first. $P(EFG) = P(G)P(F mid G)P(E mid FG)$. There's many many valid approaches. Part of the reason why I find probability challenging/interesting.
– HJ_beginner
1 hour ago
add a comment |Â
up vote
3
down vote
I am a beginner so see if this makes sense to you. If not let me know. Here are two ways you can solve this.
Method 1
You can solve this using the joint pmf for a multinomial distribution.
$$P(X_6 = 2, X_5 = 1, X_other = 2) = frac5!2!1!2! left( frac16 right)^2 left( frac16 right) left( frac46 right)^2 approx .062$$
Method 2
Alternatively you can solve this using the multiplication rule. Here you get the $1/5$ that your professor talked about because when you condition you are on a reduced sample space.
Let $E$ be the event you get two sixes.
Let $F$ be the event you get one five.
Let $G$ be the event you get two of the others.
$$P(EFG) = P(E)P(F mid E)P(G mid EF) $$
$$P(E) = 5 choose 2left( frac16 right)^2 left( frac56 right)^3 $$
$$P(F mid E) = 3 choose 1left( frac15 right) left( frac45 right)^2$$
$$P(G mid EF) = 2 choose 2left( frac44 right)^2 left( frac44 right)^0 = 1$$
$$P(EFG) approx .062$$
The first method looks like an easy way, can I get the general equation? But still, the $1/5$ doesn't compute to me. How can we rule out a face when it can still happen? To me if we put $p=1/5$ it's would be like considering the 3 other dice have five faces.
– Nuz
3 hours ago
In regards to method 1 just look up the Multinomial distribution on wiki and check out the pmf. In regards to the $1/5$, personally I don't think about it as a dice with five faces. Personally the way I think about it is you roll the other $3$ dice and if you get any $6$'s you just roll again. So for example, what's the probability you roll a $1$ given that you don't roll a $2,3,4,5,6$? The probability is $1$. Does that mean you have a one faced die? Maybe the way to think of it is if you get something that is not a $1$ you just re roll until you finally do. You are on a reduced sample space.
– HJ_beginner
3 hours ago
Is there another approach, to calculate the fact that one out of the 3 dice must be a '5' and the 2 others can't be '6's or '5's? Or maybe another analogy or something?
– Nuz
1 hour ago
Hmmm not sure I understand your question. You can calculate $P(EFG)$ by conditioning on any event first. $P(EFG) = P(G)P(F mid G)P(E mid FG)$. There's many many valid approaches. Part of the reason why I find probability challenging/interesting.
– HJ_beginner
1 hour ago
add a comment |Â
up vote
3
down vote
up vote
3
down vote
I am a beginner so see if this makes sense to you. If not let me know. Here are two ways you can solve this.
Method 1
You can solve this using the joint pmf for a multinomial distribution.
$$P(X_6 = 2, X_5 = 1, X_other = 2) = frac5!2!1!2! left( frac16 right)^2 left( frac16 right) left( frac46 right)^2 approx .062$$
Method 2
Alternatively you can solve this using the multiplication rule. Here you get the $1/5$ that your professor talked about because when you condition you are on a reduced sample space.
Let $E$ be the event you get two sixes.
Let $F$ be the event you get one five.
Let $G$ be the event you get two of the others.
$$P(EFG) = P(E)P(F mid E)P(G mid EF) $$
$$P(E) = 5 choose 2left( frac16 right)^2 left( frac56 right)^3 $$
$$P(F mid E) = 3 choose 1left( frac15 right) left( frac45 right)^2$$
$$P(G mid EF) = 2 choose 2left( frac44 right)^2 left( frac44 right)^0 = 1$$
$$P(EFG) approx .062$$
I am a beginner so see if this makes sense to you. If not let me know. Here are two ways you can solve this.
Method 1
You can solve this using the joint pmf for a multinomial distribution.
$$P(X_6 = 2, X_5 = 1, X_other = 2) = frac5!2!1!2! left( frac16 right)^2 left( frac16 right) left( frac46 right)^2 approx .062$$
Method 2
Alternatively you can solve this using the multiplication rule. Here you get the $1/5$ that your professor talked about because when you condition you are on a reduced sample space.
Let $E$ be the event you get two sixes.
Let $F$ be the event you get one five.
Let $G$ be the event you get two of the others.
$$P(EFG) = P(E)P(F mid E)P(G mid EF) $$
$$P(E) = 5 choose 2left( frac16 right)^2 left( frac56 right)^3 $$
$$P(F mid E) = 3 choose 1left( frac15 right) left( frac45 right)^2$$
$$P(G mid EF) = 2 choose 2left( frac44 right)^2 left( frac44 right)^0 = 1$$
$$P(EFG) approx .062$$
answered 3 hours ago
HJ_beginner
787215
787215
The first method looks like an easy way, can I get the general equation? But still, the $1/5$ doesn't compute to me. How can we rule out a face when it can still happen? To me if we put $p=1/5$ it's would be like considering the 3 other dice have five faces.
– Nuz
3 hours ago
In regards to method 1 just look up the Multinomial distribution on wiki and check out the pmf. In regards to the $1/5$, personally I don't think about it as a dice with five faces. Personally the way I think about it is you roll the other $3$ dice and if you get any $6$'s you just roll again. So for example, what's the probability you roll a $1$ given that you don't roll a $2,3,4,5,6$? The probability is $1$. Does that mean you have a one faced die? Maybe the way to think of it is if you get something that is not a $1$ you just re roll until you finally do. You are on a reduced sample space.
– HJ_beginner
3 hours ago
Is there another approach, to calculate the fact that one out of the 3 dice must be a '5' and the 2 others can't be '6's or '5's? Or maybe another analogy or something?
– Nuz
1 hour ago
Hmmm not sure I understand your question. You can calculate $P(EFG)$ by conditioning on any event first. $P(EFG) = P(G)P(F mid G)P(E mid FG)$. There's many many valid approaches. Part of the reason why I find probability challenging/interesting.
– HJ_beginner
1 hour ago
add a comment |Â
The first method looks like an easy way, can I get the general equation? But still, the $1/5$ doesn't compute to me. How can we rule out a face when it can still happen? To me if we put $p=1/5$ it's would be like considering the 3 other dice have five faces.
– Nuz
3 hours ago
In regards to method 1 just look up the Multinomial distribution on wiki and check out the pmf. In regards to the $1/5$, personally I don't think about it as a dice with five faces. Personally the way I think about it is you roll the other $3$ dice and if you get any $6$'s you just roll again. So for example, what's the probability you roll a $1$ given that you don't roll a $2,3,4,5,6$? The probability is $1$. Does that mean you have a one faced die? Maybe the way to think of it is if you get something that is not a $1$ you just re roll until you finally do. You are on a reduced sample space.
– HJ_beginner
3 hours ago
Is there another approach, to calculate the fact that one out of the 3 dice must be a '5' and the 2 others can't be '6's or '5's? Or maybe another analogy or something?
– Nuz
1 hour ago
Hmmm not sure I understand your question. You can calculate $P(EFG)$ by conditioning on any event first. $P(EFG) = P(G)P(F mid G)P(E mid FG)$. There's many many valid approaches. Part of the reason why I find probability challenging/interesting.
– HJ_beginner
1 hour ago
The first method looks like an easy way, can I get the general equation? But still, the $1/5$ doesn't compute to me. How can we rule out a face when it can still happen? To me if we put $p=1/5$ it's would be like considering the 3 other dice have five faces.
– Nuz
3 hours ago
The first method looks like an easy way, can I get the general equation? But still, the $1/5$ doesn't compute to me. How can we rule out a face when it can still happen? To me if we put $p=1/5$ it's would be like considering the 3 other dice have five faces.
– Nuz
3 hours ago
In regards to method 1 just look up the Multinomial distribution on wiki and check out the pmf. In regards to the $1/5$, personally I don't think about it as a dice with five faces. Personally the way I think about it is you roll the other $3$ dice and if you get any $6$'s you just roll again. So for example, what's the probability you roll a $1$ given that you don't roll a $2,3,4,5,6$? The probability is $1$. Does that mean you have a one faced die? Maybe the way to think of it is if you get something that is not a $1$ you just re roll until you finally do. You are on a reduced sample space.
– HJ_beginner
3 hours ago
In regards to method 1 just look up the Multinomial distribution on wiki and check out the pmf. In regards to the $1/5$, personally I don't think about it as a dice with five faces. Personally the way I think about it is you roll the other $3$ dice and if you get any $6$'s you just roll again. So for example, what's the probability you roll a $1$ given that you don't roll a $2,3,4,5,6$? The probability is $1$. Does that mean you have a one faced die? Maybe the way to think of it is if you get something that is not a $1$ you just re roll until you finally do. You are on a reduced sample space.
– HJ_beginner
3 hours ago
Is there another approach, to calculate the fact that one out of the 3 dice must be a '5' and the 2 others can't be '6's or '5's? Or maybe another analogy or something?
– Nuz
1 hour ago
Is there another approach, to calculate the fact that one out of the 3 dice must be a '5' and the 2 others can't be '6's or '5's? Or maybe another analogy or something?
– Nuz
1 hour ago
Hmmm not sure I understand your question. You can calculate $P(EFG)$ by conditioning on any event first. $P(EFG) = P(G)P(F mid G)P(E mid FG)$. There's many many valid approaches. Part of the reason why I find probability challenging/interesting.
– HJ_beginner
1 hour ago
Hmmm not sure I understand your question. You can calculate $P(EFG)$ by conditioning on any event first. $P(EFG) = P(G)P(F mid G)P(E mid FG)$. There's many many valid approaches. Part of the reason why I find probability challenging/interesting.
– HJ_beginner
1 hour ago
add a comment |Â
up vote
2
down vote
But then the professor told me that $p=1/5$ and not $p=1/6$ That's what I don't get.
You have correctly evaluated the probability for the event that two from the five dice show 6.
$$mathsf P(N_6=2)=binom 52 dfrac1^25^36^5$$
Now, of the three dice which don't show 6, each may show faces $1,2,3,4,5$ with equal probability. Â Thus the conditional probability for a die showing 5, when given that it does not show 6, is $1/5$. Â So the conditional probability for obtaining one 5 when given that two 6 have been obtained among the five dice is:
$$mathsf P(N_5=1mid N_6=2)=binom 31dfrac1^14^25^3$$
Of course at the end we multiply those two probabilities to get the final probability that we want.
And the $5^3$ factors will cancel, so:
$$mathsf P(N_6=2,N_5=1)=binom52binom31dfrac1^21^14^26^5$$
PS: This is called a multinomial distribution.
add a comment |Â
up vote
2
down vote
But then the professor told me that $p=1/5$ and not $p=1/6$ That's what I don't get.
You have correctly evaluated the probability for the event that two from the five dice show 6.
$$mathsf P(N_6=2)=binom 52 dfrac1^25^36^5$$
Now, of the three dice which don't show 6, each may show faces $1,2,3,4,5$ with equal probability. Â Thus the conditional probability for a die showing 5, when given that it does not show 6, is $1/5$. Â So the conditional probability for obtaining one 5 when given that two 6 have been obtained among the five dice is:
$$mathsf P(N_5=1mid N_6=2)=binom 31dfrac1^14^25^3$$
Of course at the end we multiply those two probabilities to get the final probability that we want.
And the $5^3$ factors will cancel, so:
$$mathsf P(N_6=2,N_5=1)=binom52binom31dfrac1^21^14^26^5$$
PS: This is called a multinomial distribution.
add a comment |Â
up vote
2
down vote
up vote
2
down vote
But then the professor told me that $p=1/5$ and not $p=1/6$ That's what I don't get.
You have correctly evaluated the probability for the event that two from the five dice show 6.
$$mathsf P(N_6=2)=binom 52 dfrac1^25^36^5$$
Now, of the three dice which don't show 6, each may show faces $1,2,3,4,5$ with equal probability. Â Thus the conditional probability for a die showing 5, when given that it does not show 6, is $1/5$. Â So the conditional probability for obtaining one 5 when given that two 6 have been obtained among the five dice is:
$$mathsf P(N_5=1mid N_6=2)=binom 31dfrac1^14^25^3$$
Of course at the end we multiply those two probabilities to get the final probability that we want.
And the $5^3$ factors will cancel, so:
$$mathsf P(N_6=2,N_5=1)=binom52binom31dfrac1^21^14^26^5$$
PS: This is called a multinomial distribution.
But then the professor told me that $p=1/5$ and not $p=1/6$ That's what I don't get.
You have correctly evaluated the probability for the event that two from the five dice show 6.
$$mathsf P(N_6=2)=binom 52 dfrac1^25^36^5$$
Now, of the three dice which don't show 6, each may show faces $1,2,3,4,5$ with equal probability. Â Thus the conditional probability for a die showing 5, when given that it does not show 6, is $1/5$. Â So the conditional probability for obtaining one 5 when given that two 6 have been obtained among the five dice is:
$$mathsf P(N_5=1mid N_6=2)=binom 31dfrac1^14^25^3$$
Of course at the end we multiply those two probabilities to get the final probability that we want.
And the $5^3$ factors will cancel, so:
$$mathsf P(N_6=2,N_5=1)=binom52binom31dfrac1^21^14^26^5$$
PS: This is called a multinomial distribution.
answered 22 mins ago


Graham Kemp
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2
The probability is $1/5$ because you CAN"T get another $6.$ Then, you would have more than two $6$s.
– StatGuy
3 hours ago