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Why can't Northern Ireland just have a stay/leave referendum?
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In following the ongoing Brexit drama, I notice that the Northern Ireland border represents an important sticking point. In particular, both sides agree that there must not be a hard border. Not being familiar with Irish history, I'm curious why, since this sounds very non-standard. From what I have seen, this is because Northern Ireland is a country with split identities: a significant fraction wants to be part of Ireland, while an equally significant fraction would rather be part of the UK.
Why can't Northern Ireland just hold a referendum similar to the Scotland independence referendum from a few years ago, and both sides agree to support the results? This would make things so simple. If Northern Ireland votes to stay in the UK then a hard border is obvious and acceptable, since they are now definitely part of the UK and should act in solidarity with them as well. If Northern Ireland votes to join Ireland, the question of a border doesn't arise in the first place (and they remain in the EU).
My guess is that doing this would lead to violence, but I don't see why. After all the Scottish independence referendum didn't lead to violence, even though there was a sizable minority of Scotland that didn't like the result. I notice that Northern Ireland did actually have such a referendum in 1973, but oddly that didn't resolve the question: even with the boycott, the 591,820 voters who voted to remain is more than 50% of the electorate so the result seems clear.
Apologies if I missed some important background, since I genuinely know little about Irish history.
Tangentially related: Why is having border controls in Ireland so problematic for Irish nationalists? & Why is it impossible to leave the Single Market without a hard Irish border?
brexit northern-ireland republic-of-ireland
asked 10 hours ago
Allure
1221
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Allure is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
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add a comment |Â
up vote
3
down vote
favorite
In following the ongoing Brexit drama, I notice that the Northern Ireland border represents an important sticking point. In particular, both sides agree that there must not be a hard border. Not being familiar with Irish history, I'm curious why, since this sounds very non-standard. From what I have seen, this is because Northern Ireland is a country with split identities: a significant fraction wants to be part of Ireland, while an equally significant fraction would rather be part of the UK.
Why can't Northern Ireland just hold a referendum similar to the Scotland independence referendum from a few years ago, and both sides agree to support the results? This would make things so simple. If Northern Ireland votes to stay in the UK then a hard border is obvious and acceptable, since they are now definitely part of the UK and should act in solidarity with them as well. If Northern Ireland votes to join Ireland, the question of a border doesn't arise in the first place (and they remain in the EU).
My guess is that doing this would lead to violence, but I don't see why. After all the Scottish independence referendum didn't lead to violence, even though there was a sizable minority of Scotland that didn't like the result. I notice that Northern Ireland did actually have such a referendum in 1973, but oddly that didn't resolve the question: even with the boycott, the 591,820 voters who voted to remain is more than 50% of the electorate so the result seems clear.
Apologies if I missed some important background, since I genuinely know little about Irish history.
Tangentially related: Why is having border controls in Ireland so problematic for Irish nationalists? & Why is it impossible to leave the Single Market without a hard Irish border?
brexit northern-ireland republic-of-ireland
asked 10 hours ago
Allure
1221
New contributor
Allure is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
AFAIK a referendum for a united Ireland is possible with the GFA if Ireland calls for it; I believe this will happen either quite soon if we get a Brexit or till 2030 latest anyway.
– Martin Schröder
8 hours ago
4
Scotland didn't have a twentieth century conditioned by failed and successful revolutions; nor by multiple armed groups in periodic action alongside military occupations. A very different context.
– Samuel Russell
7 hours ago
1
This would make things so simple.History has shown that IT IS NOT A GOOD IDEA to have almost half of people being extremely frustrated and hate the country they're in. That means civil war etc...
– Bregalad
5 hours ago
add a comment |Â
up vote
3
down vote
favorite
up vote
3
down vote
favorite
In following the ongoing Brexit drama, I notice that the Northern Ireland border represents an important sticking point. In particular, both sides agree that there must not be a hard border. Not being familiar with Irish history, I'm curious why, since this sounds very non-standard. From what I have seen, this is because Northern Ireland is a country with split identities: a significant fraction wants to be part of Ireland, while an equally significant fraction would rather be part of the UK.
Why can't Northern Ireland just hold a referendum similar to the Scotland independence referendum from a few years ago, and both sides agree to support the results? This would make things so simple. If Northern Ireland votes to stay in the UK then a hard border is obvious and acceptable, since they are now definitely part of the UK and should act in solidarity with them as well. If Northern Ireland votes to join Ireland, the question of a border doesn't arise in the first place (and they remain in the EU).
My guess is that doing this would lead to violence, but I don't see why. After all the Scottish independence referendum didn't lead to violence, even though there was a sizable minority of Scotland that didn't like the result. I notice that Northern Ireland did actually have such a referendum in 1973, but oddly that didn't resolve the question: even with the boycott, the 591,820 voters who voted to remain is more than 50% of the electorate so the result seems clear.
Apologies if I missed some important background, since I genuinely know little about Irish history.
Tangentially related: Why is having border controls in Ireland so problematic for Irish nationalists? & Why is it impossible to leave the Single Market without a hard Irish border?
brexit northern-ireland republic-of-ireland
asked 10 hours ago
Allure
1221
New contributor
Allure is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
In following the ongoing Brexit drama, I notice that the Northern Ireland border represents an important sticking point. In particular, both sides agree that there must not be a hard border. Not being familiar with Irish history, I'm curious why, since this sounds very non-standard. From what I have seen, this is because Northern Ireland is a country with split identities: a significant fraction wants to be part of Ireland, while an equally significant fraction would rather be part of the UK.
Why can't Northern Ireland just hold a referendum similar to the Scotland independence referendum from a few years ago, and both sides agree to support the results? This would make things so simple. If Northern Ireland votes to stay in the UK then a hard border is obvious and acceptable, since they are now definitely part of the UK and should act in solidarity with them as well. If Northern Ireland votes to join Ireland, the question of a border doesn't arise in the first place (and they remain in the EU).
My guess is that doing this would lead to violence, but I don't see why. After all the Scottish independence referendum didn't lead to violence, even though there was a sizable minority of Scotland that didn't like the result. I notice that Northern Ireland did actually have such a referendum in 1973, but oddly that didn't resolve the question: even with the boycott, the 591,820 voters who voted to remain is more than 50% of the electorate so the result seems clear.
Apologies if I missed some important background, since I genuinely know little about Irish history.
Tangentially related: Why is having border controls in Ireland so problematic for Irish nationalists? & Why is it impossible to leave the Single Market without a hard Irish border?
brexit northern-ireland republic-of-ireland
brexit northern-ireland republic-of-ireland
asked 10 hours ago
Allure
1221
New contributor
Allure is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
asked 10 hours ago
Allure
1221
New contributor
Allure is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
asked 10 hours ago
Allure
1221
New contributor
Allure is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
asked 10 hours ago
Allure
1221
asked 10 hours ago
Allure
1221
1221
New contributor
Allure is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
New contributor
Allure is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
Allure is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.
AFAIK a referendum for a united Ireland is possible with the GFA if Ireland calls for it; I believe this will happen either quite soon if we get a Brexit or till 2030 latest anyway.
– Martin Schröder
8 hours ago
4
Scotland didn't have a twentieth century conditioned by failed and successful revolutions; nor by multiple armed groups in periodic action alongside military occupations. A very different context.
– Samuel Russell
7 hours ago
1
This would make things so simple.History has shown that IT IS NOT A GOOD IDEA to have almost half of people being extremely frustrated and hate the country they're in. That means civil war etc...
– Bregalad
5 hours ago
add a comment |Â
AFAIK a referendum for a united Ireland is possible with the GFA if Ireland calls for it; I believe this will happen either quite soon if we get a Brexit or till 2030 latest anyway.
– Martin Schröder
8 hours ago
4
Scotland didn't have a twentieth century conditioned by failed and successful revolutions; nor by multiple armed groups in periodic action alongside military occupations. A very different context.
– Samuel Russell
7 hours ago
1
This would make things so simple.History has shown that IT IS NOT A GOOD IDEA to have almost half of people being extremely frustrated and hate the country they're in. That means civil war etc...
– Bregalad
5 hours ago
AFAIK a referendum for a united Ireland is possible with the GFA if Ireland calls for it; I believe this will happen either quite soon if we get a Brexit or till 2030 latest anyway.
– Martin Schröder
8 hours ago
AFAIK a referendum for a united Ireland is possible with the GFA if Ireland calls for it; I believe this will happen either quite soon if we get a Brexit or till 2030 latest anyway.
– Martin Schröder
8 hours ago
4
4
Scotland didn't have a twentieth century conditioned by failed and successful revolutions; nor by multiple armed groups in periodic action alongside military occupations. A very different context.
– Samuel Russell
7 hours ago
Scotland didn't have a twentieth century conditioned by failed and successful revolutions; nor by multiple armed groups in periodic action alongside military occupations. A very different context.
– Samuel Russell
7 hours ago
1
1
This would make things so simple. History has shown that IT IS NOT A GOOD IDEA to have almost half of people being extremely frustrated and hate the country they're in. That means civil war etc...– Bregalad
5 hours ago
This would make things so simple. History has shown that IT IS NOT A GOOD IDEA to have almost half of people being extremely frustrated and hate the country they're in. That means civil war etc...– Bregalad
5 hours ago
add a comment |Â
2 Answers
2
active
oldest
votes
up vote
8
down vote
Northern Ireland is a net recipient rather than contributor to the UK economy (Scotland and Wales are too actually). It takes more money than it contributes. England is the wealthiest country in the UK, followed by Scotland, then NI, then Wales.
It's also deeply divided between nationalists and unionists. Half of the population does not see itself as Irish, half does not see itself as British. While Irish people in the Republic of Ireland would like to have a united island for cultural and historical reasons, they are well aware of the potential economic impacts of reunification with the North. And the UK, in all honesty, would probably be glad to be rid of it, it's something of a troublesome burden that the UK was forced to bear due to it's colonial history.
Most British people I know see NI has a red headed stepchild. It's actually a lovely place btw, Belfast is a beautiful city, it's where Game of Thrones was filmed, and has some amazing scenery like the Giant's Causeway. But a lot of people in the UK still think of Northern Ireland and think terrorism (specifically the IRA, they are unaware of UVF unionist terrorism), but there's much more to NI than that. The (nominally) Catholic and thus Nationalist population of NI is growing however, and identify more strongly as Irish than British. A mix of nationalism and dissatisfaction with Brexit could push this small majority strongly towards reunification. And I can't see there being much push back from mainland UK these days.
So really, it comes down to whether the Irish Republic wants to reunify, and the opposition of the large Unionist minority in NI who would bitterly oppose reunification for cultural and historic reasons. Even they may be swayed by the advantages of staying in the EU, though Ireland doesn't yet have an NHS, and the UK does, that and the investment from the UK government, which is probably more than what the Republic's government would be willing to invest, are the strongest reasons to remain in the UK.
In my opinion, it's really just a matter of time until NI reunifies with the rest of Ireland. We have to keep in mind though, it really isn't that long ago that Belfast was a warzone. It has rapidly changed, but we're talking 20 years ago, not ancient history. It's a very sensitive subject.
edited 3 hours ago
Martin Tournoij
6,02833864
answered 10 hours ago
Icarian
41719
2
"Northern Ireland is a net recipient" prime example: 10 NI MP's negotiated £2B in extra spending in return for promising to vote in the way they were likely to anyway
– Caleth
2 hours ago
add a comment |Â
up vote
1
down vote
Northern Ireland could aim for independence, or more likely to become part of Ireland. The latter is known as a "border poll" and has been proposed before. There is in fact a mechanism to trigger a border poll, but it requires political capital that isn't there are the moment.
Essentially that's what it comes down to: There isn't the political will to do it right now, not enough people in Northern Ireland support the idea. That may change, it may not, but for now the prospect of it happening is remote and a solution for the border withe NI in the UK has to be found.
answered 3 hours ago
user
4,80621125
add a comment |Â
2 Answers
2
active
oldest
votes
2 Answers
2
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
up vote
8
down vote
Northern Ireland is a net recipient rather than contributor to the UK economy (Scotland and Wales are too actually). It takes more money than it contributes. England is the wealthiest country in the UK, followed by Scotland, then NI, then Wales.
It's also deeply divided between nationalists and unionists. Half of the population does not see itself as Irish, half does not see itself as British. While Irish people in the Republic of Ireland would like to have a united island for cultural and historical reasons, they are well aware of the potential economic impacts of reunification with the North. And the UK, in all honesty, would probably be glad to be rid of it, it's something of a troublesome burden that the UK was forced to bear due to it's colonial history.
Most British people I know see NI has a red headed stepchild. It's actually a lovely place btw, Belfast is a beautiful city, it's where Game of Thrones was filmed, and has some amazing scenery like the Giant's Causeway. But a lot of people in the UK still think of Northern Ireland and think terrorism (specifically the IRA, they are unaware of UVF unionist terrorism), but there's much more to NI than that. The (nominally) Catholic and thus Nationalist population of NI is growing however, and identify more strongly as Irish than British. A mix of nationalism and dissatisfaction with Brexit could push this small majority strongly towards reunification. And I can't see there being much push back from mainland UK these days.
So really, it comes down to whether the Irish Republic wants to reunify, and the opposition of the large Unionist minority in NI who would bitterly oppose reunification for cultural and historic reasons. Even they may be swayed by the advantages of staying in the EU, though Ireland doesn't yet have an NHS, and the UK does, that and the investment from the UK government, which is probably more than what the Republic's government would be willing to invest, are the strongest reasons to remain in the UK.
In my opinion, it's really just a matter of time until NI reunifies with the rest of Ireland. We have to keep in mind though, it really isn't that long ago that Belfast was a warzone. It has rapidly changed, but we're talking 20 years ago, not ancient history. It's a very sensitive subject.
edited 3 hours ago
Martin Tournoij
6,02833864
answered 10 hours ago
Icarian
41719
2
"Northern Ireland is a net recipient" prime example: 10 NI MP's negotiated £2B in extra spending in return for promising to vote in the way they were likely to anyway
– Caleth
2 hours ago
add a comment |Â
up vote
8
down vote
Northern Ireland is a net recipient rather than contributor to the UK economy (Scotland and Wales are too actually). It takes more money than it contributes. England is the wealthiest country in the UK, followed by Scotland, then NI, then Wales.
It's also deeply divided between nationalists and unionists. Half of the population does not see itself as Irish, half does not see itself as British. While Irish people in the Republic of Ireland would like to have a united island for cultural and historical reasons, they are well aware of the potential economic impacts of reunification with the North. And the UK, in all honesty, would probably be glad to be rid of it, it's something of a troublesome burden that the UK was forced to bear due to it's colonial history.
Most British people I know see NI has a red headed stepchild. It's actually a lovely place btw, Belfast is a beautiful city, it's where Game of Thrones was filmed, and has some amazing scenery like the Giant's Causeway. But a lot of people in the UK still think of Northern Ireland and think terrorism (specifically the IRA, they are unaware of UVF unionist terrorism), but there's much more to NI than that. The (nominally) Catholic and thus Nationalist population of NI is growing however, and identify more strongly as Irish than British. A mix of nationalism and dissatisfaction with Brexit could push this small majority strongly towards reunification. And I can't see there being much push back from mainland UK these days.
So really, it comes down to whether the Irish Republic wants to reunify, and the opposition of the large Unionist minority in NI who would bitterly oppose reunification for cultural and historic reasons. Even they may be swayed by the advantages of staying in the EU, though Ireland doesn't yet have an NHS, and the UK does, that and the investment from the UK government, which is probably more than what the Republic's government would be willing to invest, are the strongest reasons to remain in the UK.
In my opinion, it's really just a matter of time until NI reunifies with the rest of Ireland. We have to keep in mind though, it really isn't that long ago that Belfast was a warzone. It has rapidly changed, but we're talking 20 years ago, not ancient history. It's a very sensitive subject.
edited 3 hours ago
Martin Tournoij
6,02833864
answered 10 hours ago
Icarian
41719
2
"Northern Ireland is a net recipient" prime example: 10 NI MP's negotiated £2B in extra spending in return for promising to vote in the way they were likely to anyway
– Caleth
2 hours ago
add a comment |Â
up vote
8
down vote
up vote
8
down vote
Northern Ireland is a net recipient rather than contributor to the UK economy (Scotland and Wales are too actually). It takes more money than it contributes. England is the wealthiest country in the UK, followed by Scotland, then NI, then Wales.
It's also deeply divided between nationalists and unionists. Half of the population does not see itself as Irish, half does not see itself as British. While Irish people in the Republic of Ireland would like to have a united island for cultural and historical reasons, they are well aware of the potential economic impacts of reunification with the North. And the UK, in all honesty, would probably be glad to be rid of it, it's something of a troublesome burden that the UK was forced to bear due to it's colonial history.
Most British people I know see NI has a red headed stepchild. It's actually a lovely place btw, Belfast is a beautiful city, it's where Game of Thrones was filmed, and has some amazing scenery like the Giant's Causeway. But a lot of people in the UK still think of Northern Ireland and think terrorism (specifically the IRA, they are unaware of UVF unionist terrorism), but there's much more to NI than that. The (nominally) Catholic and thus Nationalist population of NI is growing however, and identify more strongly as Irish than British. A mix of nationalism and dissatisfaction with Brexit could push this small majority strongly towards reunification. And I can't see there being much push back from mainland UK these days.
So really, it comes down to whether the Irish Republic wants to reunify, and the opposition of the large Unionist minority in NI who would bitterly oppose reunification for cultural and historic reasons. Even they may be swayed by the advantages of staying in the EU, though Ireland doesn't yet have an NHS, and the UK does, that and the investment from the UK government, which is probably more than what the Republic's government would be willing to invest, are the strongest reasons to remain in the UK.
In my opinion, it's really just a matter of time until NI reunifies with the rest of Ireland. We have to keep in mind though, it really isn't that long ago that Belfast was a warzone. It has rapidly changed, but we're talking 20 years ago, not ancient history. It's a very sensitive subject.
edited 3 hours ago
Martin Tournoij
6,02833864
answered 10 hours ago
Icarian
41719
Northern Ireland is a net recipient rather than contributor to the UK economy (Scotland and Wales are too actually). It takes more money than it contributes. England is the wealthiest country in the UK, followed by Scotland, then NI, then Wales.
It's also deeply divided between nationalists and unionists. Half of the population does not see itself as Irish, half does not see itself as British. While Irish people in the Republic of Ireland would like to have a united island for cultural and historical reasons, they are well aware of the potential economic impacts of reunification with the North. And the UK, in all honesty, would probably be glad to be rid of it, it's something of a troublesome burden that the UK was forced to bear due to it's colonial history.
Most British people I know see NI has a red headed stepchild. It's actually a lovely place btw, Belfast is a beautiful city, it's where Game of Thrones was filmed, and has some amazing scenery like the Giant's Causeway. But a lot of people in the UK still think of Northern Ireland and think terrorism (specifically the IRA, they are unaware of UVF unionist terrorism), but there's much more to NI than that. The (nominally) Catholic and thus Nationalist population of NI is growing however, and identify more strongly as Irish than British. A mix of nationalism and dissatisfaction with Brexit could push this small majority strongly towards reunification. And I can't see there being much push back from mainland UK these days.
So really, it comes down to whether the Irish Republic wants to reunify, and the opposition of the large Unionist minority in NI who would bitterly oppose reunification for cultural and historic reasons. Even they may be swayed by the advantages of staying in the EU, though Ireland doesn't yet have an NHS, and the UK does, that and the investment from the UK government, which is probably more than what the Republic's government would be willing to invest, are the strongest reasons to remain in the UK.
In my opinion, it's really just a matter of time until NI reunifies with the rest of Ireland. We have to keep in mind though, it really isn't that long ago that Belfast was a warzone. It has rapidly changed, but we're talking 20 years ago, not ancient history. It's a very sensitive subject.
edited 3 hours ago
Martin Tournoij
6,02833864
answered 10 hours ago
Icarian
41719
edited 3 hours ago
Martin Tournoij
6,02833864
edited 3 hours ago
Martin Tournoij
6,02833864
edited 3 hours ago
Martin Tournoij
6,02833864
6,02833864
answered 10 hours ago
Icarian
41719
answered 10 hours ago
Icarian
41719
answered 10 hours ago
Icarian
41719
41719
2
"Northern Ireland is a net recipient" prime example: 10 NI MP's negotiated £2B in extra spending in return for promising to vote in the way they were likely to anyway
– Caleth
2 hours ago
add a comment |Â
2
"Northern Ireland is a net recipient" prime example: 10 NI MP's negotiated £2B in extra spending in return for promising to vote in the way they were likely to anyway
– Caleth
2 hours ago
2
2
"Northern Ireland is a net recipient" prime example: 10 NI MP's negotiated £2B in extra spending in return for promising to vote in the way they were likely to anyway
– Caleth
2 hours ago
"Northern Ireland is a net recipient" prime example: 10 NI MP's negotiated £2B in extra spending in return for promising to vote in the way they were likely to anyway
– Caleth
2 hours ago
add a comment |Â
up vote
1
down vote
Northern Ireland could aim for independence, or more likely to become part of Ireland. The latter is known as a "border poll" and has been proposed before. There is in fact a mechanism to trigger a border poll, but it requires political capital that isn't there are the moment.
Essentially that's what it comes down to: There isn't the political will to do it right now, not enough people in Northern Ireland support the idea. That may change, it may not, but for now the prospect of it happening is remote and a solution for the border withe NI in the UK has to be found.
answered 3 hours ago
user
4,80621125
add a comment |Â
up vote
1
down vote
Northern Ireland could aim for independence, or more likely to become part of Ireland. The latter is known as a "border poll" and has been proposed before. There is in fact a mechanism to trigger a border poll, but it requires political capital that isn't there are the moment.
Essentially that's what it comes down to: There isn't the political will to do it right now, not enough people in Northern Ireland support the idea. That may change, it may not, but for now the prospect of it happening is remote and a solution for the border withe NI in the UK has to be found.
answered 3 hours ago
user
4,80621125
add a comment |Â
up vote
1
down vote
up vote
1
down vote
Northern Ireland could aim for independence, or more likely to become part of Ireland. The latter is known as a "border poll" and has been proposed before. There is in fact a mechanism to trigger a border poll, but it requires political capital that isn't there are the moment.
Essentially that's what it comes down to: There isn't the political will to do it right now, not enough people in Northern Ireland support the idea. That may change, it may not, but for now the prospect of it happening is remote and a solution for the border withe NI in the UK has to be found.
answered 3 hours ago
user
4,80621125
Northern Ireland could aim for independence, or more likely to become part of Ireland. The latter is known as a "border poll" and has been proposed before. There is in fact a mechanism to trigger a border poll, but it requires political capital that isn't there are the moment.
Essentially that's what it comes down to: There isn't the political will to do it right now, not enough people in Northern Ireland support the idea. That may change, it may not, but for now the prospect of it happening is remote and a solution for the border withe NI in the UK has to be found.
answered 3 hours ago
user
4,80621125
answered 3 hours ago
user
4,80621125
answered 3 hours ago
user
4,80621125
answered 3 hours ago
user
4,80621125
4,80621125
add a comment |Â
add a comment |Â
Allure is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
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AFAIK a referendum for a united Ireland is possible with the GFA if Ireland calls for it; I believe this will happen either quite soon if we get a Brexit or till 2030 latest anyway.
– Martin Schröder
8 hours ago
4
Scotland didn't have a twentieth century conditioned by failed and successful revolutions; nor by multiple armed groups in periodic action alongside military occupations. A very different context.
– Samuel Russell
7 hours ago
1
This would make things so simple.History has shown that IT IS NOT A GOOD IDEA to have almost half of people being extremely frustrated and hate the country they're in. That means civil war etc...– Bregalad
5 hours ago